李淼;郝玉青;路继业;

• 1:上海师范大学旅游学院
• 2:哈尔滨哈银消费金融有限责任公司
• 3:汕头大学商学院

摘要(Abstract)：

人民币汇率形成机制作为宏观经济政策框架的重要组成部分，对中国经济运行和宏观政策效果具有重要影响。本文基于155个经济体1980-2016年的面板数据，利用生存分析模型中非参数、半参数技术系统研究浮动汇率制度持续期在不同发展阶段经济体中的差异性。研究发现：非参数估计的主要结果表明浮动汇率制度在发达经济体的持续期最长，在发展中经济体的持续期居中，浮动汇率制度持续期在新兴经济体最短。发达经济体金融发展程度越高，其退出浮动汇率制度的风险越低。新兴经济体贸易集中度、经济发展程度和金融发展程度提高，其退出浮动汇率制度的风险均增加。发展中经济体估计结果表明其政治、经济和金融因素具有较大波动性，这些因素能通过不同渠道和机制对其汇率制度选择产生影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 汇率制度选择;持续期;K-M估计;Cox比例风险模型;时依协变量

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目，项目编号，72173074;; 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目，项目编号：2021A1515011624,2022A1515010774;; 广东省科技专项资金项目，项目编号：2020-47;; 汕头大学科研启动经费项目，项目编号：STF19010

作者(Authors): 李淼;郝玉青;路继业;

DOI: 10.13902/j.cnki.syyj.2022.02.006

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• ① 限于篇幅，本文并未报告相关系数检验的具体结果，备索。